“Pass or play” in the 2009 Bordeaux bun fight?
Wednesday 24 February
The people at The Wine Investment Fund have stuck their necks out and claimed that the fine wine market is going to surge by as much as 18% this year. Of course they would say that wouldn’t they? But they don’t want egg on their face, so perhaps there’s something in it.
After the market plummeted in late ‘08, the fine wine market has indeed started to pick up again. Lafite ‘05 is now back up to £7,995 at Berry Bros and Rudd and sales director Simon Staples believes it’s going to continue rallying this year and should be up to £10,000 a case by the summer. It’s a pretty tempting prospect.
In its monthly newsletter, the gents who run TWIF, say, “in the second half of 2009 the main indices were up 11-14%. We expect this to be the start of a prolonged and rapid upturn which makes today an ideal time to be investing.”
But what to invest in? The much hyped 2009s will be on the market in May/June and it seems the world and his wife wants a case of Lafite and Mouton. London merchants Bordeaux Index reports the waiting list for the 09s is the longest on record (although I’m not sure that records began so long ago but it sounds impressive, doesn’t it?)
Perhaps it is time to get in and buy up lesser vintages. When the last ‘great’ vintage was on the verge of release (the 2005s, in case you’re not a fine wine geek), Liv-ex analysed the market and looked at unfashionable vintages. It reported first growth wines from lesser vintages had been overlooked and were a good investment prospect, particularly the 2001s and 2002s.
Interestingly they did the same thing in December 2009, asking whether we should “pass or play” on the 09s. From the data, it appears the 05s weren’t such great value for money after all…
“It is the comparatively lesser years of 2001 and 2002 that have shown the greatest returns, with both showing a price rise of 89% over the period. Indeed, the average price increase of all other vintages in the chart equals 63%; 18% higher than that shown by 2005,” said the Liv-ex report.
“In essence, the high price of the 2005 vintage sparked price rises among its lower priced peers. If the trend of four years ago is repeated, then 2006 and 2008 are likely to represent the best opportunities for investment.”
Maybe I should go out and get my hands on some first growths from lesser vintages rather than jumping into the 09 frenzy – it would certainly be a lot more civilised than entering the Bordeaux bun fight.
Wine Future, felt tips and a safety pin
Tuesday 10 November
The wine world is descending on Rioja this week for Winefuture, a conference asking: what are the major challenges and opportunities facing the wine industry in 2009?
Big names including Robert Parker, Jancis Robinson MW and Constellation’s Troy Christensen will be speaking at the event so I’m heading along with more than 900 others to see what they have to say.
The technical director of Winefuture, Kevin Zraly, said: “Not many events in this industry focus on global sales and marketing of wine. Moreover, not only the event will bring together the most important wine industry professionals but also the most prestigious wine writers in the world.”
Does that “prestigious wine writers” bit include me Kevin?! I don’t think so. There was a bit of confusion over my press accreditation yesterday. The organisers couldn’t find any trace of me despite sending confirmation of my place by email back in July. Luckily I still had the official email and the conference has happily found me again. Confusion caused by a changeover of staff, they said. I will wait to see if I get a name badge or I’ll have to make my own. Perhaps I should take some card, a felt tip and a safety pin to Rioja with me, just in case.
JP Chenet says yes to cross-regional wines
Tuesday 6 October
If you’re not already sick to the back teeth of me harping on about the EU wine reform, here I am again with more updates.
Les Grand Chais de France group claims to be the largest exporter of wines from France, representing one in every five bottles of French wine sold abroad.
I’ve just spoken to Tim North, UK director of Les Grand Chais as part of my research for an article in Meiningers. Following the EU wine reform and the creation of vin de France, the white wines of France’s biggest brand JP Chenet, will be voluntarily downgraded from vin de pays to vin de France so it can blend across regions this year. North said, “At JP Chenet we think that there are big quality advantages of being able to blend from different regions especially for whites. For example Sauvignon Blanc is not aromatic in the Languedoc Roussillon; it is in the Loire but it can be a bit thin in cool years and we can also take some fruit from Gascony. We think that we can offer a great price to quality ratio by cross regional blending.”
While smaller producers oppose this sort of cross-regional blending, as it goes against all notions of terroir (or sense of place), this will enable the brand to compete with the New World’s big boys without previous restrictions.
“We were able to do this with vin de pays du vignobles de France previously but it was so complicated. We had to go through a bureaucratic process in each region before blending. We did this with our Kiwi Sauvignon in 2008 for the first time. We went through the whole rigmarole but we no longer have to get the ‘agrément’, we can please ourselves.”
“It’s what the Aussies had been doing for ages and we can do it now.”
The producer’s reds look likely to remain unchanged at least for this vintage, claiming there is little benefit in sourcing wines from outside the Languedoc with so many grape varieties and growers to choose from.
British boozing figures at odds with ‘stealthy’ drinking claims
Wednesday 2 September
Following the media’s outcry on rising alcohol levels and drinking by ‘stealth’ last week, the British Beer and Pub Association has published new figures showing alcohol consumption is actually falling.
The BBPA Statistical Handbook’s timing is impeccable with figures that are at odds with the claims of ever rising growth in UK. The figures show that alcohol consumption fell in 2008, and has fallen 6.1% since 2004.
The statistics are related to beer rather than wine but it’s good to see concrete facts challenging the Mintel report and its ‘stealthy’ claims.
British consumption of booze per head remains in the mid range compared with our European neighbours. Britons drink less than the French, Germans, and Spanish, with the Czechs drinking the most per head, at 12.4 litres of alcohol, compared to the UK’s 8.1 litres.
BBPA acting chief executive, David Long, said, “Our new Statistical Handbook will confound many of the myths surrounding trends in the UK drinks industry. Year on year, we are not drinking more. Nor is British beer getting stronger, with two thirds of our beer at or below 4.2%strength, compared to the continental standard of 5%.”
Unfortunately, it’s not as rock and roll as Mintel’s report, so don’t expect it to make the tabloid headlines. The public are unlikely to hear about this.
Other interesting facts from the Handbook
- Total expenditure on alcohol in the on-trade was at its lowest level since 1972 (oh dear)
- 27% of on-trade wine sales were in the London area compared to only 16% of beer sales
Mintel drinks report leads to press outcry
Friday 28 August
Every UK newspaper was filled with scaremongering headlines yesterday about the British drinking too much ‘by stealth’. A new report published by Mintel has brought the topic of alcohol levels to the public eye but as a member of the drinks industry it’s like claiming the world is round is a new revelation- and newsworthy.
The Telegraph reported along the same lines as every other broadsheet and tabloid: ‘Middle-class Britons are drinking too much “by stealth” because they consume alcohol more frequently than other groups and the wine they enjoy is getting stronger’.
The papers were taking their information from Jonny Forsyth, senior drinks analyst at Mintel who, said in a press release, ‘In the 1970s a bottle of wine may have been around 11% in ABV and now the same bottle is more likely to be around 13%.’ What a revelation. I think I’ll take up writing reports and charging.
Forsyth added, ‘It may be that the majority of consumers are not aware of ABV and don’t even notice. So despite a greater societal concern with being healthy leading to a decline in drinking penetration, by stealth we are drinking more pure alcohol than ever.’
Now what’s all this about stealth? I appreciate they probably mean unknowingly but the dictionary describes stealth as cunning or underhand procedure and if you do a search in the thesaurus you’ll find its synonyms are slyness, sneakiness or furtiveness. But who’s being sneaky here? The drinks industry? If it is the industry he’s pointing the finger at for producing drinks higher in alcohol and not being open about it, then I have to take issue with him.
Admittedly alcohol levels in wine have risen, as he describes, thanks in part to better techniques in the vineyard, more efficient yeasts in the winery, possibly global warming and a fashion to leave grapes on the vine for longer to get phenolic ripeness (meaning seed and skin ripeness as well as sugar ripeness). But it’s not like we’ve hidden it – read the label!
Lower alcohol wines are still low on the list of priorities for consumers if you look at Wine Intelligence research. The wine industry is innovating to create lower alcohol wines with earlier picking and alcohol removal technologies amongst other things but demand is still low – perhaps from a lack of awareness of how many units we’re drinking. The industry is getting together to consider the potential of the low alcohol category in October. The public will be a long way behind.