“Pass or play” in the 2009 Bordeaux bun fight?
Wednesday 24 February
The people at The Wine Investment Fund have stuck their necks out and claimed that the fine wine market is going to surge by as much as 18% this year. Of course they would say that wouldn’t they? But they don’t want egg on their face, so perhaps there’s something in it.
After the market plummeted in late ‘08, the fine wine market has indeed started to pick up again. Lafite ‘05 is now back up to £7,995 at Berry Bros and Rudd and sales director Simon Staples believes it’s going to continue rallying this year and should be up to £10,000 a case by the summer. It’s a pretty tempting prospect.
In its monthly newsletter, the gents who run TWIF, say, “in the second half of 2009 the main indices were up 11-14%. We expect this to be the start of a prolonged and rapid upturn which makes today an ideal time to be investing.”
But what to invest in? The much hyped 2009s will be on the market in May/June and it seems the world and his wife wants a case of Lafite and Mouton. London merchants Bordeaux Index reports the waiting list for the 09s is the longest on record (although I’m not sure that records began so long ago but it sounds impressive, doesn’t it?)
Perhaps it is time to get in and buy up lesser vintages. When the last ‘great’ vintage was on the verge of release (the 2005s, in case you’re not a fine wine geek), Liv-ex analysed the market and looked at unfashionable vintages. It reported first growth wines from lesser vintages had been overlooked and were a good investment prospect, particularly the 2001s and 2002s.
Interestingly they did the same thing in December 2009, asking whether we should “pass or play” on the 09s. From the data, it appears the 05s weren’t such great value for money after all…
“It is the comparatively lesser years of 2001 and 2002 that have shown the greatest returns, with both showing a price rise of 89% over the period. Indeed, the average price increase of all other vintages in the chart equals 63%; 18% higher than that shown by 2005,” said the Liv-ex report.
“In essence, the high price of the 2005 vintage sparked price rises among its lower priced peers. If the trend of four years ago is repeated, then 2006 and 2008 are likely to represent the best opportunities for investment.”
Maybe I should go out and get my hands on some first growths from lesser vintages rather than jumping into the 09 frenzy – it would certainly be a lot more civilised than entering the Bordeaux bun fight.
South Africa makes it onto the rostrum
Tuesday 23 February
South Africa is now selling more wine in the UK than France. You would have got very long odds for that happening if you’d placed a bet 15 years ago.
The latest Nielsen stats put three New World countries on the UK’s best-selling rostrum: Australia, the US (well, California) along with the Safas. What a turn around in 20 years. According to the OIV, new world producing wine countries had 3% of the market in the late 1980s but in 2008, it was 30% and its share is clearly continuing to grow.
In the past year, South African wine sales have increased 20% by volume to 12.27m cases, while French wine sales continued on their slide into the abyss, dropping 12% to 12.26m cases.
Interestingly, South Africa released its volume figures but not its value figures, which leaves us guessing. Anyone venturing into a UK supermarket, will see there are plenty of deals on South African wine, which have been driving volumes and not value.
As Australia and Chile have seen, cheap isn’t cheerful for your wine industry. If you sell at less than a fiver, that damages perceptions of your wine industry and it’s difficult to claw your way out of that.
Nevertheless, South Africa has come a long way and the World Cup is coming in June putting the country firmly on the map.
Your £5m chance to get Naked
Thursday 18 February
Are you a winemaker who wants to go it alone but can’t convince the bank manager to give you a loan?
Here’s your chance.
The innovative people at online wine retailer Naked Wine have announced they will stump up £5 million to talented winemakers looking to set up in business. They’ve already supported Chilean couple Felipe Garcia and Constanza Schwarder (pictured) and want to help others. What a cracking idea.
Rowan Gormley, director of Naked Wines, said, “We’re looking to commission experienced, proven winemakers, who are looking to go it alone, to create stunning new wines for UK wine drinkers.
“We will cover production costs, pay a salary, guarantee an order, market the wines, pay a profit per bottle sold. In other words, provide all the tools an independent winemaker needs to create their own wine, under their own label, without the risks usually associated with being self-employed in the wine world.
Interested winemakers can find out more about the project, and apply for a piece of the action here
If you still haven’t signed up to Save the Wine column, please help the campaign. We’re only nine off 1000. Tim’s shopping list column comes out this weekend, and I’m encouraging as many people as possible to write to Stephen Pritchard, readers’ editor at The Observer reader@observer.co.uk and the editor John Mulholland john.mulholland@observer.co.uk to complain. Snail mail address is The Observer, Kings Place, 90 York Way, London, N1 9GU. Please use ‘Save the Wine column’ as your email subject or letter heading.
Sauvignon Gris: a Susan Boyle wine
Wednesday 17 February
Montana’s new Reserve Sauvignon Gris arrived on my doorstep last week. The press release from Pernod Ricard-owned Montana exclaimed it was “inspiring new horizons” with the launch of this fringe variety and I was interested to try it. Unfortunately, I’d be lying if I said I liked it: the wine was confused.
So what is this Sauvignon Gris shananigans? According to Oz Clarke’s book, Grapes and Wines, Sauvignon Gris is a pink mutation of Sauvignon Blanc. Apparently “it gives 20% lower yields than Sauvignon Blanc, one degree more alcohol and a less pungent but spicier aroma.”
Interestingly, Chateau Smith Haut-Lafite in Pessac Leognan adds 5% of Gris to its delicious Sauvignon Blanc.
This wasn’t Smith Haut-Lafite. It had a real Sauvignon Blanc nose of green pepper (also known as capsicum to you non-Brits) and gooseberry. My brain and palate were ready for a light bodied, zippy Sauvignon but it got a weighty Gris mouthful with lowish acidity. It’s a bit of a Susan Boyle – you think you know what to expect and then find out you were completely wrong. Unfortunately this wasn’t a pleasant surprise.
Another concern is, who is the target market? Is it the Sauvignon Blanc drinker or the Pinot Gris guzzler? They’re very different audiences and this variety seems to please neither camp. And at NZ$23.99, I won’t be urging you to rush out and buy it. But if you want to try a wine with a split personality, this is the one for you.
If you haven’t signed up to Save the Wine column, please help the campaign. At the last count, we had 871 members and we’re aiming for 1000.
Save the Wine Column: it’s more than saving a column
Sunday 14 February
Those of you not yet signed up to the Save the Wine column campaign on Facebook, shame on you! At the last count we had 679 members and some pretty passionate comments.
I set the group up last week and didn’t realise quite how heated things would get. The loss of wine columns is a worldwide trend as seen by the number of international members getting involved from France to Canada, the US and New Zealand.
Champenois, Gilles Dumangin, said “First thing I buy when I arrive in the UK on regular visits is the Observer… Not anymore.”
UK-based Colin Smith, commented: “My Sundays will never be the same without a browse of Tim’s column in the Observer. What next? No Nigel Slater?”
But the campaign has unearthed the wider debate of the traditional print media and falling advertising revenues.
As more and more content shifts on-line, can the print media survive? They will co-exist for a time. I continue to earn my money from print media while blogging, tweeting and running a Facebook campaign so I’m in the game when my main source of income erodes. I sincerely hope that doesn’t happen but the prognosis isn’t promising. Personally, I’m a big fan of leafing my way through a magazine, rather than squinting at a computer screen and I’m sure I’m not alone.
But Olly Wehring, editor of online news site just-drinks.com, was not optimistic of the chances of saving our wine columns: “The move to cut back wine columns in national newspapers serves only as an indication that the times, they are a-changin’. To argue for the survival of something that is clearly on its way out is like trying to get toothpaste back in the tube,” he wrote.
Clearly advertising has fallen in the past 18 months with a number of magazines I write for combining (ie dropping) issues due to a lack of advertising. How to get wine companies to stump up for advertising or partnerships with magazines and newspapers is a real issue in the age of free vehicles like twitter.
Rob McIntosh, a blogger and social media expert also brought up the subject of advertising: “The number of column inches available are not related to the quality of the writing, they are about a chase for the quality dollars (or pounds). There simply isn’t the same advertising revenue from wine columns as for cars, travel,” he said. “There may be more consumers buying wine, but they are not necessarily doing so on the advice of wine columns in newspapers. Ironically, the editors’ attempts to address that (turning columns into shopping lists) reduces the value and interest of the column.”
